As many of you know, last season, I derived a
complicated, highly nuanced and foolproof equation using my many years of study
of discrete calculus, quantum physics, and string theory (also my limited
understanding of the meaning of the words "complicated,"
"nuanced," and "foolproof"). For those of you not familiar,
you can revisit my genius here, but
as I've never been one to rest on my laurels (on an unrelated note - does
anyone know where I can get some laurels?) and as the rules of
the Bachelorette clearly aren't always the same as those that govern
the Bachelor, I have developed a metric to help you evaluate these year's
batch of hopeful prospects.
Below,
I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the women based on their
performance in episode 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your
draft (or almost anything else). For more detail
on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power
(SP
= a*P(D+B) * (-0.25C2 + 2C)), see my earlier post.
Amy L. - SP: 7
Attraction (a): 7
For the whole first limo, I thought I was going to have to throw this variable out because Juan Pablo was pretty much off the charts into every girl who stepped out (also just off the charts into the process. Have we ever seen a Bachelor who was so unabashedly, gleefully embracing the launch of what is basically his own private harem? I get that Juan Pablo wants dancing to be his thing, but let's just say that pulling out a boombox and essentially yelling "Dance, Bitches" is neither the most classy nor restrained move a Bachelor could pull). He mellowed a bit by the time he got to Limo 2, though, which is why I discounted Amy's rating a bit based on the primacy effect.
We got
nothing here, so really the only thing we know about Amy is that she is the
proud owner of an almost comically ruffled shirt (though on the plus side for
Amy, I will probably remember this fact for the rest of my life. Right now it's
occupying the brain space I would need to understand the Bernouli
Principle....so, you know, no biggie)
Domesticatability (D): 1
Again,
nothing. Though I saw no evidence that she would actually try to ship little
Camila off to boarding school school the minute she got dear old Daddy in her
clutches, so points for that!
Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 1
Likelihood of Stabbing You in the Neck and/or Shaving Off Her Own Eyebrows to Make a Point about You Never Noticing her Haircut (C): 0
Cassandra - SP: 100
Attraction (a): 10
Here's
what we know about Cassandra. She's a former NBA Dancer; at 21, she's not
exactly the ideal candidate to be a four year old's mother; and the least
awkward conversation she had with Juan Pablo all night was about doing makeup.
Now, maybe I'm way off base and Juan Pablo is passionate about moisturizing.
But I'd be willing to bet that it's either attraction keeping her here or producers are hoping
Cassandra holds the key to what were borderline epidemic-levels of orange on
this season's premier.
Background (B): 0
But
to be fair, she hasn't had that many years on earth to put one together...
Domesticatability (D): 1
But on
the plus side she can be a part of the always fun "Are you closer to my
age than Daddy's age?" conversation.
Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 5
Just
about middle of the pack. My best guess is that Juan Pablo will keep her around
for awhile with an eye toward the fantasy suites until she presents him with an
uncomfortable token of her love (Scrap Book? Poem? Picture she colored all by
herself?) and he is forced to reconsider.
Likelihood of Stabbing You in the Neck and/or Shaving Off Her Own Eyebrows to Make a Point about You Never Noticing her Haircut (C): 2
It's in
the eyes! Plus it looks like she's going to play at least a supporting role in
some of the drama.
Christy - SP: 24
Attraction (a): 8
Solely
based on the fact that she earned the first "I'm liking this Limo"
comment...so perhaps 8 with an assist credited to Cassandra and Amy L!
Background (B): 0
Domesticatability
(D): 1
Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 3
I
think. It happens to me every year, so I'm sure it's not a shock, but my brain
hasn't yet wrapped around which is Christy and which is Elise...with maybe Kat
thrown into the mix as well (Although I know which girl isn't Kat).
Likelihood of Stabbing You in the Neck and/or Shaving Off Her Own Eyebrows to Make a Point about You Never Noticing her Haircut (C): 0
Christine - SP: 0
Attraction (a): 10
I have
to say, from the moment she got out of the limo and adjusted her boobs, I
thought Juan Pablo was really into her. He gave her the coveted "Oh my
God. Wow," and went in for a super aggressive hug. I wish I knew what
happened over the course of the night to make Christine lose favor. Did she get
too drunk and reveal some unusual sexual proclivities? Not drunk enough and
reveal she did believe in premarital sex? Did she opt for the funky chicken
when Juan Pablo commanded her to dance? Or...am I just confusing her with
Christy?
Background (B): 0
Domesticatability (D): 5
Christine's
gift for Camila was actually pretty cute and not just because it looked like
Camila could have made it herself. Plus it showed an astute understanding of
not so much the role of mother, but of stepmother
which is, of course, to buy the child in question's love. So much wasted
potential!
Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 0
Likelihood of Stabbing You in the Neck and/or Shaving Off Her Own Eyebrows to Make a Point about You Never Noticing her Haircut (C): 0
Nikki - SP: 1050
Attraction
(a): 10
When
it comes to the Bachelorette,
attraction is really physical and probably (if things like "science are to
be believed) chemical. But on the Bachelor, there's a layer beyond that, which
is, of course, the degree to which the Bachelor thinks a girl is likely to
sleep with him. Nikki exploited this right out of the gate by proffering an
ever so subtle and remarkably demure invitation to fondle her chest. It's no
wonder that she got the only saucy finger bit of the night from Juan Pablo.
Background (B): 6
We
don't yet know the personal adversity that Nikki has undoubtedly overcome, but
the producers did enough to make it quite clear that we are supposed to like her.
Domesticatability (D): 9
So
after watching this episode, I have a limited understanding of
"nursing" and "modern medicine" (though I can tell you what color
dress each girl was wearing), but I'm pretty sure Nikki basically kisses boo
boos for a living. Short of whipping out photos of your own little tyke, that's
pretty much the best you can do!
Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 7
This
was actually lower than I would have guessed. Nikki's one of my early
frontrunners so maybe all of those "generic blonde back of head' shots
were her.
Likelihood of Stabbing You in the Neck and/or Shaving Off Her Own Eyebrows to Make a Point about You Never Noticing her Haircut (C): 0
So far,
Nikki seems genuinely sweet. Depending on the Bachelor, that can be the kiss of
death (see B., Kacie), so we will have to wait and see.
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