Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.
After last season's debacle, I have been scrupulously avoiding spoilers and therefore, have no actual knowledge of any of these men (or, to take the optimist's view, roughly the same degree of knowledge that Des will have when she agrees to marry one of them); however, I feel confident that my many years spent watching the show have given me enough insight to identify the factors that really matter in each prospective husband's premier performance and to develop an advanced metric which will henceforth be known as "Staying Power" (SP) based on:
Attraction (a): The degree to which Desiree demonstrated attraction to a guy. Not to be confused with actual attractiveness (A), which is classically described by the universally objective Pitt-Beckham scale of hotness. This factor, though among the most important, contributes a larger weight to The Bachelor than to its lady-driven counterpart
Background (B): The extent to which we are exposed to a guy and/or his personal tragedy during Episode 1. Emotional exposure. Physical exposure doesn't count (ahem, Zak W.). Though being featured in a profile at the top of the show doesn't guarantee you'll avoid the limo of shame after night one, it certainly helps. This variable encompasses, not just the extent to which the audience is allowed to peer into the still very, very shallow recesses of each contestant's soul, but also, how sad each contestant makes us feel and their level of success in exploiting an adorable relative.
Awkwardness of Entrance (E): This is a controversial measure, especially with a lady like Desiree, who clearly doesn't like her romantic gestures to come with costumes or props, but for each contestant who makes it through the first rose ceremony, the extent to which they made the rest of us cringe on night one can actually be a plus in terms of Staying Power. The embarrassing entrance can be your go to for stagnant conversations and for times you should be discussing things like what religion you plan to raise you kids (Yenter, 2013).
Featured Scene Percentage in "Coming Up" Montage (P): This can be misleading. Often the truly terrible villains dominate a lot of screen time and then go home by week 5, but as the draft is ultimately about who will put up points rather than who will win Des' heart, it would be folly not to include it here.
Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): This one sort speaks for itself. Also, it has historically had a disconcertingly high correlation with Attraction (a).
There are a few other variables that I considered that ultimately didn't make the list. Last year, Catherine single-handedly disproved the importance of Rememberability (R) on night one (also, on nights 2-10), and while the Time that you Receive your Rose (T) is allegedly important in later episodes, it has limited cache in the kickoff rose ceremony (sadly, Ability to Fit a Normal Sized Shirt around your Somewhat North of Normal Sized Neck (AFNSSAYSNNSN) is still pretty key - sorry Mikey).
Mix these numbers all around (all of which will be based on a not at all arbitrary score out of 10) and you have yourself a metric that - not unlike an NFL quarterback's performance on the combine - is predictive of absolutely nothing. Happy Drafting Everyone!
SP = a*P(E+B) - L
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