A few years back, I derived a complicated, highly nuanced and foolproof equation using my many years of study of discrete calculus, quantum physics, and string theory (also my limited understanding of the meaning of the words "complicated," "nuanced," and "foolproof"). For those of you not familiar, you can revisit my genius here, but as I've never been one to rest on my laurels (on an unrelated note - does anyone know where I can get some laurels?) and as the rules of the Bachelorette clearly aren't always the same as those that govern the Bachelor, I have developed a metric to help you evaluate these year's batch of hopeful prospects. There's a lot of arguments both for and against sabermetrics in sports. Sabermetrics can't take into account intangibles and they reduce beautiful concepts like love of the game and believing in yourself when no one else does to cold, hard math. And I'd be lying if I said I haven't spent many a sleepless night questioning the validity of my metric (or maybe I'm lying right now. You can never trust a liar!), but ultimately I have to keep putting the measure out their each year and take comfort in the fact that a) the Bachelor Fantasy league is not (as of yet) a Moneyball-style endeavor, and b) it's hard to care about intangibles and math when somebody's sprinkling spoilers all over the web!
The metric that keeps me up at night is known as "staying power" and it combines some of the relevant variables from the Bachelorette with my advanced degree in psychometrics, my passionate love of lying, and just a pinch of nutmeg. So without further ado (unless you want to give me a little drumroll as you're reading this at your computer), I give you "Staying Power" (SP) which is based on:
Attraction (a): Borrowed from The Bachelorette's Staying Power equation (henceforth known as SPy), Attraction measures the degree to which Juan Pablo demonstrated attraction to a girl. Not to be confused with actual attractiveness (A), which is classically described by the universally objective Bunchen-Zeta Jones scale of hotness. This factor is important for programs driven by both gender, but weighs much more heavily in the Bachelor equation (SPxx). In fact, it is so heavily weighted that it eliminates both the need for some of the variables seen in SPy, including E (See Clare aka Woman who faked a pregnancy and yet is somehow still on the show), Awkwardness of Entrance and the need for Common Sense (See Vienna Girardi).
Background (B): The extent to which we are exposed to a girl and/or her personal tragedy during Episode 1. Though being featured in a profile at the top of the show doesn't guarantee you'll avoid the limo of shame after night one, it certainly helps. This variable encompasses, not just the extent to which the audience is allowed to peer into the still very, very shallow recesses of each contestant's soul, but also, how sad each contestant makes us feel and their level of success in exploiting an adorable relative.
Domesticatability (D): Highly correlated with M or "Mommy-ness" (which will likely prove to be an important variable this year), Domesticatability incorporates important qualities that really anyone should be looking for in a partner such as desire to pop out children; desire to immediately restore one's waistline once said children have emerged; and willingness to abandon your job, home, family, and friends to move halfway across the country to be with a man who you have known for a collective total of 87 hours.
Featured Scene Percentage in "Coming Up" Montage (P): This can be misleading. Often the truly terrible villains dominate a lot of screen time and then go home by week 5, but as the draft is ultimately about who will put up points rather than who will win Juan Pablo's heart, it would be folly not to include it here.
Likelihood of Stabbing You in the Neck and/or Shaving Off Her Own Eyebrows to Make a Point about You Never Noticing her Haircut (C): Also known as Craziness, this variable plays a complex role in the Staying Power of a Bachelor contestants. Not only do the dueling motivations of the producers and the Bachelor come into play here, but the Bachelor often faces an internal struggle on this front as well. It's the age old question of safe and boring vs. dangerous and fun. Good to bring home to mom vs. good in bed. Jennifer vs. Angelina. He-Man vs. She-Ra (okay, that last one, while certainly a question of some merit, might not be the age old question for which we're searching).
There are a few other variables that I considered that ultimately didn't make the list. Lindsey Yenter from Sean's season single-handedly disproved the importance of Ridiculous Degree of Drunkeness (RDD) (and let's be honest - even if it was in the formula, the rules would obviously be more than a little bit different for Chris), and while the Time that you Receive your Rose (T) is allegedly important in later episodes, it has limited cache in the kickoff rose ceremony (sadly, Decision-Making Abilities that Allow You to Appear on National Television in Something More Classy than Lingerie (DMAAYANTSMCL) is still pretty key - sorry Brittany).
Mix these numbers all around (all of which will be based on a not at all arbitrary score out of 10), do some light googling of "parabolic equations" (made much easier once you realize that "hyperbolic equations" is something else entirely - although probably equally applicable to the "Most Dramatic Show" on TV), and you have yourself a metric that - not unlike an NFL quarterback's performance on the combine - is predictive of absolutely nothing. Happy Drafting Everyone!
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