Thursday, January 7, 2016

Week 1, Prospect Reports

In my effort to scale back a bit this year (it's amazing what falls by the wayside when you set your bedtime at 8 pm. Don't worry, Mandi. Flossing isn't one of them), I'm cutting the prospect reports to the very good, the very bad, and the questionable. And thank heavens we seem to have plenty of all three this year since Ben remains utterly uninteresting (He went to elementary AND high school! They're clearly holding on to the big reveal about his middle school attendance for episode 4)!

So below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for some key picks based on performances in Night 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your draft (or almost anything else.The fact that I am flooded with hormones and have eaten my growing fetus' body weight in chocolate in the past 24 hours really doen't seem like it should bring my judgement into question...)  For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power  (SP = a*P(D+B) * (-0.25C+ 2C)), see my earlier post.

Definitely Draft:

Olivia – SP: 4125
Attraction (a): 10
Ben actually seems to play his cards pretty close to the vest when it comes to attraction, but Olivia seemed to be the one girl to elicit an involuntary noise from the otherwise canned compliment-toting Ben. So bewitched was Ben that he didn't even hesitate to play along with her clumsy efforts to make sure he noticed she had a dimple. 

Note the requisite inflation for newscaster hair.
Background (B): 8
Olivia's background is a veritable minefield of red flags. She left her incredibly difficult to find television job to...go on a less-prestigious and completely time-bound television show. The best part of her job was her access to the community, so she quit the job and the community in the same week. A background of poor decision-making isn't exactly a high romantic priority for me, but, then again, that might be why I've gotten to a point in life where I only own a single ballgown and rarely travel anywhere for the express purpose of not making friends. 

Domesticatability (D): 3
Because does anything in life really "lack zest" harder than scrubbing out your bathroom grout with a toothbrush.

Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 10
And I'm so excited about it, you guys! Olivia has the potential to be the first villain that the Bachelor actually likes since maybe the last Ben. I can't even make jokes. I'm storing up all of my energy to simultaneously love and hate her!

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 5
Not only does Olivia have the potential to be hated by all the other women yet beloved by Ben, but she also has the potential to legitimately be terrible! Early evidence includes "Our conversation was a really big deal for him." And while it's possible to be both humble and deserving, if you say you're both, that possibility falls immediately by the wayside.


Caila – SP: 2700
Attraction (a): 9
Caila and Ben have an attraction that the other girls in the house should probably find vaguely threatening. They seem to legitimately like each other. And he seems to think she's funny. 

Background (B): 5
Caila, too, seems to have a history of poor decision-making, though in a decidedly pro-Bachelor way. In real life, using fate as your divining rod seems somewhat ill-advised, but on the Bachelor it seems spontaneous and spunky and real! I'm not sure we've ever had such a such a strong front-runner to be the next Bachelorette on night one. 

Domesticatability (D): 5

Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 8
I felt way too creepy trying to go back
and get a screen grab of Caila in her
bra, so this is what you get instead!
And did anyone else notice that one of those scenes involved her making out with Ben in what looked to be a bra? I mean, it was probably a bikini (in fact, are the women even allowed to wear non-swimwear undergarments during the taping of the show? And do they have a gynecologist on site to help them cope with the yeast infections?), but it still doesn't really explain why she was thusly clad while Ben was wearing a flannel shirt.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a 
Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 3
 On the one hand, if you're having deeper feelings for a guy you see on TV than for your current boyfriend, you probably should break up. But on the other hand...that doesn't mean you should then go out and try to to date that guy. And it certainly doesn't mean you should believe in the likelihood of your success.


Lauren B. – SP: 1960
Attraction (a): 10
Lauren B. "took Ben's breath away" and there was clearly something about her that he liked. She did have the advantage of being the first out of the limo, but regardless of the reason, it was obvious Ben kept coming back to thoughts of her throughout the night.

Background (B): 5
And whoever made the comment about the fantasy of the flight attendant was right. It is a common male fantasy, but one that makes you seem significantly less creepy then, say, going all in on twins. Lauren B. provides the wish fulfillment of an Emily/Haley with the added bonus of allowing Ben to still seem like a "Good Guy."

The deadliest weapon of all.
Domesticatability (D): 3

The verdict is out on this one until we know more about why she was so insistent that he kept those wings on him at all times. Was the pin-part sharpened into a deadly weapon for Lace-related self defense? Did it contain a small amount of antidote for suspected exposure to a deadly poison? And would she expose that the purveyor of said poison was actually one Chris Harrison or would that blow her cover? So yes...I'm basically suggesting that Lauren B. is either probably totally ready to be a wife and mother...or she's a spy.

Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 6
But maybe in the "we like her, so we edited her out of all the drama" sort of way.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 2


Jubilee – SP: 3037.5
Attraction (a): 10
I think it's safe to say Ben liked the dress. I personally wouldn't have gone with an approach that drew attention to its tightness, but then again "Are you happy to see me or is that just my spanx cutting off all blood flow to my brain?" does lack a certain measure of sex appeal.

Background (B): 8
If mini horse trumps twins, then Afghanistan clearly trumps mini horse. You know what? It probably even trumps twins riding in on said mini horse.

Domesticatability (D): 1


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 9
And not only is she featured in many different scenes, but she is also seemed to be wearing many different outfits. Most of them tight. Which are both probably excellent signs.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 3
Clearly, this is pure speculation but...even though they tried to imply it was Lace, do we really think any of the other ladies in the mix have the arm strength to give Leah that shiner? Especially with how tuckered out they all must be from a long night hoisting very full glasses of wine.


Joelle "Jo Jo" – SP: 2250

Attraction (a): 10
Not only did Jo Jo make her appearance wearing a unicorn head. She made her appearance wearing a supremely creepy unicorn head. If unicorns are supposed to represent innocence, that this beast has been relegated to the kind of innocence that emerges if and when the "glove don't fit." This is a classic Clare from Juan Pablo's season. If the bachelor thinks you're really hot, it doesn't really matter how uncomfortable your entrance is. Maybe if I was more attracted to Joelle, I'd still be able to sleep at night.

Background (B): 5
Also we learned Ben is pretty good at Pictionary!
Domesticatability (D): 5
Are there people out there who are professional house-flippers who aren't hoping someone gives them there own reality TV show? On the one hand, I'm sure she's good at a lot of wifely duties (you know, like spackling and using a level. I pretty much have a fairy tale marriage!), but on the other hand, will she really be willing to use those skills off screen?


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 6
And since one of those scenes featured an "I Love You" it seems likely that, if not Lauren or Caila, Jo Jo will be set up as the pious counterpoint to Olivia's wicked ways. The unicorn to her Voldemort, we might even say.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 3
She couldn't even see out of that horrifying thing! If unicorns represent goodness and light, then this was the unicorn of the creepy sort of will-o-the-wisp lights that lure unsuspecting travelers to their doom. 



Don't Draft:

Mandi – SP: 14
Attraction (a): 2
Mandi was clearly a producer selection. They're trying to recapture the magic of Ashley S. with a similarly "out there" girl. But unlike Ashley S., Mandi is a dentist. She's smart and self-aware and deliberately rather than magically strange. Also, she probably isn't mixing medications on national TV. They don't typically let you be a dentist and also do those sorts of things.

"Can you believe I'm wearing a flower on my head? I'm
just so kooky!"
Background (B): 4

Domesticatability (D): 0
And lord help us all if anyone gets her started on traditional gender roles before she gets sent packing in Week 2.


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 1

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 7
The issue with Mandi, though, is that I don't believe she'd shave off her eyebrows if she didn't have an audience there to observe it. Her whole shtick is purportedly about being "different" and "weird" and "Portland," but I suspect it's not about any of those things in isolation. Mandi doesn't want to have a heart-to-heart with a sand crab or pick pomegranates in the garden. She just wants to be the type of girl who's more likely to do those things that you. 


Amber – SP: 37.5
Attraction (a): 2
Poor Amber. I'm sure plenty more happened that we just didn't get to see, but when she walked in to join Becca and Ben, it seemed like he was this close to blurting out "Who's your friend?"

Background (B): 5
The perennial complaints of unfairness when they bring back contestants from the past is ridiculous and dumb and bespeaks the magical illusion that the producers weave for each girl, that clearly she will be special. Who but her could win? That being said, I'm not convinced that appearing on Bachelor in Paradise shouldn't disqualify you from dating anyone, ever, for the rest of your life.

Domesticatability (D): 0


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 1

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 3
See B, Bachelor in Paradise.


Jami – SP: 41.25
Attraction (a): 5
Jami seems adorable. And Ben seems to know it. But when has it ever been an effective means of attracting a man to tell him that you're friends with his ex?

Background (B): 1

Domesticatability (D): 10
Because if Jami can make sweeping and erroneous generalizations about Canadians, then I can do it too! She also has dined upon Kraft dinner with the past week. Fact.


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 1

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 1
She didn't even seem convincing stammering out her mildly dirty joke! Jami seems imminently dateable for MANY different men, but after night one, I sense Ben likes his women with just a little bit of the vamp.


Rachel – SP: 87.5
Attraction (a): 5

Background (B): 0

Domesticatability (D): 5


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 1
One assumes that, in week 2, her hoverboard explodes, precipitating her untimely death. 

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 2


High Risk/High Reward

Lace – SP: 700
Attraction (a): 7
Lace really is very pretty and I don't think she was all that far off when it came to her appraisal of herself against the other girls. But her obvious lack of self-confidence and its middle school mean girl manifestation put a damper on her long-term attractiveness.

Background (B): 0

Domesticatability (D): 5
In one respect only: Any one who is ever been married or in a long term relationship (and has been drunk whilst in said relationship) recognized the tone Ben took on his "so wait...you're upset with me for not making eye contact?" line. Of course, most of us probably don't remember it from our first dates...


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 4
It seems like Lace is likely to have a big week or two, but she won't last with a more masterful villain like Olivia waiting in the wings.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 10
For the first 75% of the episode, I was so excited about Lace. She had that Michelle Money/Courtney kind of judginess that's both hilarious to watch and enjoyable to hate. But right before the rose ceremony, it became clear that Lace lacks the self-awareness and the ability to code switch around her man that made Michelle and Courtney so great. She crossed over into actual crazy from just playing crazy on TV. And while a certain type of man enjoys a certain level of crazy, it's generally a sneaky crazy, not a crazy that's just two notches shy of threatening to remove his eyeballs with a spoon so that he can gaze only upon you.


Becca. – SP: 300
Attraction (a): 10
Okay, yes. I just got done talking about how crazy Lace is, and now I'm taking her word on this, but...I think we all know she is exactly the kind of crazy that has devoted countless hours to the study of body language analysis. 

Background (B): 8

Domesticatability (D): 0
Remember how Becca may be an asexual being with limited interest in relationships and love? Remember how Chris clearly wanted to pick her and she put the behind the scenes kibosh on that? At least Becca will serve as an excellent barometer for the veracity of Ben's claim that he never really watched the show.


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 5
Although I can't swear there shouldn't be another 4-5 points for the back of Becca's head. Her hair color is tough to get a handle on!

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 1


Amanda. – SP: 378
Attraction (a): 3
We didn't really get to see much of anything between Amanda and Ben, so it's difficult to click the degree to which they will click. If the show's typical pattern is to be believed (and you'll note Chris Harrison has not yet told the ladies that they shouldn't feel beholden to any rules), she'll get her a chance relatively early to see if she's got a real chance with Ben.

Background (B): 8
And the revelation of her daughters as well as all of the harrowing things her divorce taught her about love should keep her safe for at least a couple of weeks. 

Domesticatability (D): 10
Are you kidding me? She's embarking on this journey for her kids. Because research shows kids really need a dad, far more than they need to avoid a three month absence where their mom just isn't around. 


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 4
Ben may say he's ready to start a family, but the lure of 20 less complicated women may prove to be too much. And if Ben decides that he and Samantha "just don't have that special something," those "complications" (future Ben's words! Don't kill the messenger) will also be his excuse for ushering her to an early exit from his position on the moral high ground.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 7
I know that it's really not okay to judge someone else's parenting (what's that you say? I did that just 10 lines earlier without any such moral qualms?), but Kinsley and Jarley??? Come on!


Jennifer. – SP: 294
Attraction (a): 7
Not so much physically, but you know, really super attracted to her soul. And/or to finally living out his childhood dream of getting to replicate the couple name of romantic ideals, Ben Affleck and Jennifer Lopez.

Background (B): 1
I believe Jennifer was trying to imply that she doesn't dress like this every day, but time will provide the true test.

Domesticatability (D): 5


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 2
Unless I just completely failed to notice her. The risk you take with Jennifer is that it's totally possible that the stars will align and she and Ben will fall deeply and madly in love. But if that happens, it's equally possible that I will be lulled into a comatose state of boredom every time they appear together on screen.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 2
Jennifer feels confident that she and Ben share morals. I suspect that this might have been about religion, but I fear it might be a nod to that well-documented virtue of being really, really dull.


Haley/Emily. – SP: 562.5
Attraction (a): 10
And don't they just know it! 

Background (B): 2
Until ABC decides to treat them like separate individuals, I certainly can't be bothered to do so myself. I wrote down that Emily was the twin in silver and Haley was the one in green, but then never got the opportunity to use that information to differentiate between them as they did and often said nearly everything together. That being said, I will insist the ladies be drafted separately! 

Domesticatability (D): 1
I love that someone asked them how old they were. It was a not-so veiled attempt at..."Are you two for real or is this just the gross ploy that it seems?" I think "22" is a pretty clear indicator of the latter.


Featured Scene Percentage in 'Coming Up' Montage (P): 5
Here I really don't know who was who, but it does seem like they fight with each other and at least one of them falls in love. It also looks like they either get sent on the dreaded 2-on-1 date OR ABC really is the grossest network in the world (we all saw what you did to the muppets!), and they just never fully acknowledge that these are two separate girls.

Likelihood of Stabbing you in the Neck and/or Shaving off her own Eyebrows to Make a Point about you never noticing her Haircut (C): 3
I'm not sure the twins are actually going to turn out to be crazy themselves, but I love that they are forcing us to confront the notion that the show producers might actually be crazy enough to deliberately break one of their wrists. 

No comments:

Post a Comment