Week 7, The Girls

Under the best possible circumstances, I'm usually pretty checked out by the time we get to this week. The conversations are all rehashes, the pressure to say "I'm falling in love with you" or "I love you" (while exerting a ludicrous difference between the two) while expecting nothing in return is utterly asinine, and the drama is ginned up madness in which you can practically see the producers pulling the strings. So instead of focusing on the happenings of this week, let's turn our attention instead to a better tomorrow by examining the odds of who will become our next Bachelorette (while also acknowledging that, try as I might, I really can't bring myself to understand odds). So here, from in order of "Chris Harrison has probably already handed her the crown of roses (while warning that side effects may include stigmata)" to "all the other women would have to die first" are your candidates to be the next Bachelorette:

Renee: 2:1

Why It's Likely: At this point in the game, Renee has to be far and away the fan favorite. She's kind, she has a history of putting others before herself, and, while she doesn't have the tragic back story of, say, an Emily, consensus opinion has got to be that she deserves something good. I'm not entirely certain that she's fully made the jump from Renee, the Mom to Renee, the Woman (Hear her roar) in the eyes of Juan Pablo or any other men who might watch the show, but ABC knows who its target audience is. That won't matter.

Why It's Unlikely: She's got a kid. I'm holding out hope she says no.


Andi: 8:1

Why It's Likely: Andi checks off all the Bachelorette boxes. She's smart, has at least the appearance of self-sufficiency, and it totally devoid of anything even approaching a personality. Her need for constant reassurance is not a Bachelorette necessity (see: Jillian, Ali), but when it comes to successful outcomes, it does, against all logic, seem to be a plus (see: Ashley).

Why It's Unlikely: Because, if "coming up scenes are to be believed (and they are not - they have betrayed us far too deeply on far too many occasions), it looks like something hinky goes down in the fantasy suite. ABC likes their Bachelorettes heartbroken, but not controversial or emotionally scarred.

Sharleen: 20:1 

Why It's Likely: Look, I know I've gone back and forth on Sharleen almost as many times as she

went back and forth on Juan Pablo, but ultimately, she would be my first choice to be the next Bachelorette. She's a smart, talented lady who doesn't fully but into the Bachelor/ette process, and I think it would be a great change of pace. Yes, watching her dither over whether to leave or not was frustrating, but I get it. She recognized he was never going to be the guy for her, kinda wanted to stick around to see if he compensated for his lack of intelligence in other areas, and then finally let her guilt get the better of her. It's probably not the most flattering character sketch, but at least it shows a kernel of self-awareness that we're not normally treated to on this show where a man is almost instantly forgiven after shaming the girl he just banged in the ocean. At the very least it would be refreshing to have a Bachelorette who knows that "nerdy" and "intelligent" and "unattractive" are three totally distinct things.

Why It's Unlikely: As I've just stated, Sharleen doesn't fully buy into the process, and for that, she must be punished. No matter how often Bachelors and Bachelorettes harp on about how it's a two way street, they don't mean it. It's not. You come on the show, fall instantly in love with a man about which you know three very generic things and then hope against hopes that you can strategize your way into a ring. That's the game, and you're there to win it not to make savvy or measured life choices (or to make friends - we know your type!). Brooks pulled the same thing with Desiree, and...well...has anyone seen him lately?

Chelsie: 25:1

Why It's Likely: Sure, we know next to nothing about Chelsie, but look how that turned out for Juan Pablo! I think it would certainly take a few ladies turning them down, but given Renee's child, Andi's career, and Sharleen's impending Harrison-ordered hit that's not totally outside of the realm of possibilities

Why It's Unlikely: Look, Chelsie really does seem like a nice person, but I fear she probably lacks the abs, the Spanish accent, the little button of a daughter back home to whip up the sort of frenzy she would need to elevate her status from a relative unknown to the next Bachelorette.

Clare: 100:1

Why It's Likely: A few weeks ago, when Clare had the righteous indignation of every Bachelor-watching woman in America at her back, it would have been a lot more likely, but now, not so much. At this point, really the only thing keeping her hopes alive is the fact that ABC wants to show that video from her father even more than they want to show a Shonda Rhimes series about six sexy singles trying to make it as IRS auditors in the steamy world of fiscal accountability, each with a secret to hide.

Why It's Unlikely: They never choose the borderline unstable one. I'd like to say it's out of some sort of sense of moral responsibility, but let's be honest. It's 'case they're saving them for Bachelor Pad.

Nikki: 500:1

Why It's Likely: I honestly can't think of a single reason...But the least mean reason she won't be is because I'm thinking she's probably going to win.

Why It's Unlikely: We didn't really have much of a villain this season, but if we did, I guess it would be Nikki. While I certainly don't have any issue with her very mild negativity or the fact that she didn't want to listen to people trash talk her friend (which they were definitely about to do), her cockiness about the date roses, perpetual bragging about herself, and general petulance during her disagreement with Clare (although, really, when is "I know you are but what am I" ever not a good come back?) don't make for a very attractive combo, and even if she doesn't wind up unbalanced by a massive Neil Lane rock, I can't see her ascending to fill the throne Juan Pablo leaves vacant.