Week 1: The Draft: Limo 5 Prospect Report

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your draft (or almost anything else).  For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

BriDan - SP: 121


Attraction (a): 5

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 5

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0

Background (B): 5
  There's a lot of theories going around about Brian and Dan (mostly, just in my brain). It's possible that they are twins separated at birth which will be revealed when Brian huffily insists that Dan explains why he has a photo of Brian's mother. We could be witnessing the climax of a blood oath/Face Off-gone wrong kind of a situation where Dan reveals he never quite got around to that face-swapping plastic surgery he had agreed to with Brian (even though they clearly said no takesy-backsies). Maybe it's just one guy wearing two different colored ties and as the season wears on he'll have to employ more elaborate disguises, flamboyant facial hair styling, and funny hats to maintain his multi-persona facade. Maybe the poor guys just didn't get enough screen time.  Whatever the reasons, I can't personally tell the difference between Brian and Dan, so I've just decided to make things easier on us all (well, really just me) by combining them into one generic guy named BriDan. And yes, I realized by merging their names, I've created another guy named Bryden with just a slightly different spelling, but, hey, it's The Bachelor. So it just felt right.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 4
 Double the chiseled jaw means double the odds!

Micah - SP: -2

Attraction (a): 1
  But to be fair to Micah, this might have been the jacket. He's got to learn to dress for his body type.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 1
  So, I actually thought this went well for Micah when I first saw his entrance. The jacket idea was cute, and, if his design was somewhat lacking, I actually thought his sewing skills were pretty on point. Desiree seemed amused and when she said, "I'll have to do the sewing," I thought she meant for his wedding cummerbund or for their babies' onesies or for the superman costume that they would force upon their adopted rescue dog named Polo. Between Micah and Nick, the tailors of the night did not fare well.  Desiree probably just got her fill of competition on The Bachelor.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Nick R. - SP: 28

Attraction (a): 6
  He earned himself a first impression rose, so he must have been doing something right.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 1

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 5
  Too bad his poem rhymed
  I would prefer a haiku
  Or the non-poem route.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Ben - SP:

Attraction (a): 10
  First of all, thank goodness Ben was around to save this boring, boring draft limo. You could tell that Des was into him by the weak "I also went to camp" that she offered as evidence of their similarities. Also, as an only slightly related aside, I love how after Ben got the first first impression rose, there were handshakes all around. It was so gentlemanly - almost as if he had played a particularly ripping hand of whist.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 9
  I do think this number is probably unfairly inflated by controversy, but I imagine he'll put up big points while he lasts.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0
  There's probably ample room here to berate Ben for shamefully exploiting his kid, but his justification of the choice was actually pretty charming and little Brody played it perfectly with a mixture of bashful and playfully cute.

Background (B): 5
  And maybe someday that "background" will grow up to betray a woman on national TV too!

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 200
  Even if the "Coming Up" scenes are the product of clever editing and have just been slanted to make us think the woman who shows up in there for Ben, the man told us that the mother of his kid is his best friend. That should maybe be cause for a red flag.  I'm guessing China has a giant one leftover from the 2008 Olympics that should just about do the trick.

Week 1: The Draft: Limo 4 Prospect Report

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your draft (or almost anything else).  For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

Chris - SP: 118

Attraction (a): 5
  
Featured Scene Percentage (P): 8
  This one actually surprised me because I completely forgot that Chris existed by the time I got around to really breaking down the "Coming Up" scenes. I kept yelling, "Who is that?" at my computer screen (while

my husband yelled back "Why are you doing this?," the existential implications of which, I'm not sure he entirely intended) each time Chris made an appearance. I think Chris could be a dark horse for this season, the slow burn that violates all kinds of physics by picking up momentum only to fizzle (ah, science!).

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 3
  Desiree seemed to really like the whole fake proposal, tying shoe thing. I'm not sure she wouldn't have liked it if he had actually proposed. Lady, we know you're "ready," but you are 24. Calm down!

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Mike R. - SP: 0

Attraction (a): 2
  Des didn't really seem interested, but she did seem like she might be up for watching Grey's Anatomy with Mike so that she could point out all the men she found hotter than him.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 5
 And speaking of Grey's Anatomy, did I miss the part where it was about dentists?  Not that I'm trying to be a snob - I enjoy getting my teeth cleaned and having surgery on a major organ roughly equally - but in some ways, Mike's lucky he got sent home on the first night before Desiree sustained some kind of flesh wound and he had to awkwardly explain why sutures weren't really his thing.

Background (B): 0
  Somewhere, in a land far, far away, I can hear Larry's mother saying, "See Larry. The dentist gets it."

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Robert - SP: 12

Attraction (a): 7
  Robert looks a little bit like the feminine love child of Ben and Drew, and Desiree seems to really be into those guys, so....Also, when he made a big show of taking his tie off, Desiree seemed eager to see a few more articles of clothing go, so that's gotta be a pretty good sign.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 1
 Sadly, after night one, Robert seems to immediately disappear.  More accurately, he seems to have disappeared pretty much the moment he went through the door to the Bachelor mansion. Maybe he's Chris Harrison in disguise.  Chris, what did we tell you about taking your responsibilities more seriously!

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 1
  This was only awkward because Desiree's dress didn't have any pockets, so she couldn't bring her wad of singles.

Background (B): 1
  I actually completely forget that they even gave us a profile on Robert until I was taking screen shots.  But now that I've been reminded, this guy is 30.  Is it possible that sign spinning hasn't even been around for 10 years?  And also, more pressingly, outside of say, figure skating or soccer, can you really just take credit for inventing physical movement?  Is that a viable career? Because if so, I've got this whole "lifting than placing one foot in front of the other" thing that I think is really going to take off.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Juan Pablo - SP: 52

Attraction (a): 10
  Juan Pablo earned himself quite the "mmm mmm mmm" also leading Desiree to call him a "dream of a man," but I'm guessing anyone whose a sports fan immediately bristled when Juan Pablo appeared on the scene. He may be ruggedly handsome and have all kinds of moves.  He might have a charming accent and a crooked grin. But Juan Pablo has crazy eyes. And unlike for with the female contestants whose crazy-eyed antics might include some light stalking and perhaps an aggressive tattoo of your name, if you get in the way of a athlete with crazy eyes, well, he's probably going to eat your face.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 3
 My money's on Zak W. to take the slightly wilted final rose given to the guy Des just wants to sleep with (Excuse me. Stay up light braiding hair in the fantasy suite with. She's not that kind of girl), so I don't think Juan Pablo's going to be around too long. Or you know, maybe he eats someone's face.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 2
  Many of these men put a lot of time into planning their entrance. Guys sewed outfits, calligraphied invitations, even rented three year olds. But nobody executed the same degree of sneaky good reconnaissance invested in by Juan Pablo.  After all - we don't know much about Desiree.  She lived in a tent (well, maybe lived in a tent - definitely an apartment though...), she works in a bridal shop, and she liked Sean.  And what do we know about Sean?  He's incredibly condescending.  So what does Juan Pablo do?  He repeatedly corrects Desiree on how to pronounce his name and he strongly implies that she has yet to figure out one of the major functions of her feet. And within a few hours, he's got Desiree calling him a dream man. Smooth, Juan Pablo.  Very smooth.

Background (B): 0
  Nothing yet, but he is from Venezuela, so if Juan Pablo sticks around, watch for him to make some very strong moves with his potentially tragic back story.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 8
  Just because.

Brandon - SP: 35

Attraction (a): 5

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 7

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 6

 I'm not really sure that Brandon thought everything out with the whole motorcycle thing. I think he envisioned it being this huge moment, like Kalon in the helicopter, but replacing douchiness with coolness. But then he got off the motorcycle, took off his bandana, and....actually wait, let me say that again just for emphasis of what really went down....took off his bandana, and had to figure out something to say. And let's face it. Unless the first words out of his mouth were "Meet me inside, little darlin'. I just robbed a stagecoach and I'm on the lam," there was really no redeeming that move.

Background (B): -5
 I'm breaking my own personal rule of not giving negative points here because I was just so unbelievably disgusted by the choices Brandon made. You want to tell a woman you've known for five minutes that your mother's a recovering alcoholic? Fine.  You want to further air her dirty laundry by sharing that with all of the country? Not really my business. But you DO NOT give away your mother's sobriety chip just to get some air time on reality TV.  You just don't do it.  Maybe Desiree is the woman of your dreams and you're positive that she's going to be the one true love of your life (which - she's not - but that's a conversation for another day), but even if she's your high school sweetheart, doting mother to your ragtag but lovable brood of six, and central deity in your self-created polytheistic religion, your mother gave you that chip.  And you keep that chip out respect for her strength.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
  Brandon's the easy money pick for guy who gets way too into Desiree way too fast. He's been scaring off girls like this his whole life. (Though it certainly hasn't helped any when they've seen him in the sepia-toned wanted posters hanging up outside the local saloon).

Week 1: The Draft: Limo 3 Prospect Report

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your draft (or almost anything else).  For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

James - SP: 40

Attraction (a): 5

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 8

  Did they make it legal to punch people on this show? If not, there's 100 free points sitting on the table for anyone who can figure out who's the bully that took a swing at James. If so, can we make this decision retroactive and then invent time travel so we can all go back and watch Vienna get punched in the face? (Or, more likely, watch Vienna punch Kasey in the face during their tumultuous stint on Bachelor Pad. I'd settle for either).

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 1
  Too bad this scale is measured in awkwardness rather than intensity because James would be off the charts. Historically, super intense people haven't fared well on The Bachelorette, but James is super intense about loyalty. So that probably won't end horribly for him.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
 Unless he's also super intense about hypocrisy...

Larry - SP: -2

Attraction (a): 2
  Awkwardness and dress ripping aside nothing Larry did was actually insurmountably horrible. If Des had been sweating him, he certainly would have gotten a rose.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 10
  Ripping Des' Dress probably isn't the romantic beginning that anyone envisions for themselves,  but I actually feel like thousands of couples have some kind of clumsy disaster as a central feature to their meet cute (plus, Des makes dresses. If ever there was a girl well-equipped to overcome precisely these tragic odds!) What made Larry's encounter with Des so terrible wasn't that he ripped her dress. It was that he kept talking about, apologizing for, and doing an interpretive scarf dance inspired by ripping her dress.

Background (B): 0
 I can practically hear Larry's Jewish mother yelling at her screen: "Nooooo. You didn't tell her you're a doctor!" (The facts that Larry a) Might not be Jewish, and b) Might very well have two Daddies don't really seem relevant here)

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Nick R. - SP: 0

Attraction (a): 0

  So, I actually thought Nick's whole "making Des disappear" schtick was pretty clever and cute (though Larry seemed crushed that it didn't involve a white rabbit and/or another chance for him to apologize for ripping Des' dress) and that kind of confidence can be sexy if correctly deployed. But ultimately, the other guys were right. Outside of the Victorian Era (I see you Hugh Jackman and Christian Bale), girls really aren't that attracted to magic.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 5
 Still not attracted to magic, ladies of the world?  No?  Okay, good. Let's move on.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
  Ibid.



Zack K. - SP: 23


Attraction (a): 5

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 5

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 1
  Maybe just a little by association? Things were rough for the men of Limo 3

Background (B): 0
  I can neither confirm nor deny the existence of Zack K/ before the existence of this show.  Heck, I'm not even sure I can confirm his existence on it.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Diogo. - SP:
Attraction (a): 0
  You know that it's a bad sign when the half naked guy thinks you went too far, but again, attraction on Des'
part would have covered all manner of sins.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 10
  I felt a little bit bad for Diogo because he certainly went big.  And Desiree didn't even bother to try and hide the shame she felt on his behalf. I feel like usually, Bachelorettes are better at hiding their true reactions than that. Chris Harrision, we told you that you could only launch your clothing line if your other important duties, like Bachelorette training, didn't slip.  Don't let us down like this again.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
  But maybe now that he has that suit!  You've gotta think that he's opened the door to a whole community of LARPing ladies!

Week 1: The Draft: Limo 2 Prospect Report

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your draft (or almost anything else).  For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

Kasey - SP: 5

Attraction (a): 0
  Okay, this one is largely wishful thinking, but Desiree can't possibly be attracted to a guy who throws hashtags into every sentence (Right? Please? We can't possibly be expected to put up with this for more than two episodes, right?)
  
Featured Scene Percentage (P): 6

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 2
  At first, when Kasey got out of the limo, he wiped his purportedly sweaty palms and I was prepared to love him. It turns out that feeling wouldn't last.
  
Background (B): 0
  We didn't actually learn anything about Kasey's background,  but I have to think he lost some sort of bet.  Or maybe he's trying to win some sort of bet by making it to the end of The Bachelorette (or at least to the hometown dates) by starting every sentence with the word hashtag. Maybe the prize is something really good - like a million dollars or a beautiful but very sad princess' hand in marriage - and at the end he'll have to choose between proposing to Desiree, who he has grown to deeply love, or claiming his rightful prize. I'm sorry. Did I say 0 for Kasey's background? Clearly, I meant 1,000.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 7
  Kasey might not actually have a girlfriend back home per se. But you just know he has all kinds of "followers" who he's tweeting pictures of his junk.


Will - SP: -2

Attraction (a): 5
  
Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0
  Not sure if things get too "hot" for Will after this week's episode (only kidding!  The man was pretty much born to sweat.  Born to sweat while being really well centered mentally), but if the "coming up" scenes are to be believed, after this week, Will will never be seen from again.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 7
  Will's whole nickname bit was relatively awkward, and not in a good way. It's not that he came up with a bad nickname necessarily (though I have yet to see any convincing evidence that Desiree is particularly wise), but you really can't force a nickname. I have every bit of confidence that this will come up again, though I expect it will be more in the context of "the last conversation that we're ever going to have" than "the last conversation before we start our new life."
  
Background (B): 1
  We got the background profile on Will, but I'm not really sure how much we learned about him aside from the fact that he does Bikram yoga and his mother never taught him not to high five strangers.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Mikey T - SP: 26

Attraction (a): 1
  Mikey might have won the coveted final rose, but I suspect this had more to do with Desiree needing to pick a 19th suitor and her actually remembering her name....kind of like how you remember a gorilla named Cuddles (or like how you remember a gorilla named Mikey - actually exactly like that).
  
Featured Scene Percentage (P): 4

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 5
It might not count as embarrassment per se, but Mikey's confession that he empathized with Des' brother didn't exactly seem like the best move. Mikey, I too have seen Desiree's performance on Sean's season, and it was pretty clear that she barely wanted to be sharing a family with someone like her brother, much less a romantic tryst. (Excuse me. A romantic group date with 12 other men. She's not that kind of girl).
  
Background (B): 2
  We didn't get much on Mikey, but we do know he comes from a close family. That might not be much, but in Bachelor land, it at least counts far more than the guy who admitted that his parents had the shocking lack of foresight to get a divorce.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2


Jonathan - SP: 0

Attraction (a): 0
  It's actually too bad that Jonathan turned out to be such a creeper (or I guess more accurately was never not such a creeper) because he actually had some pretty funny lines. I'm not sure if humor is really Des' thing (although Sean was quite the barrel of laughs), but he had a good line about the eyebrow waxing and a funny bit about how his mom thinks he's good look.  Or maybe that was just a continuation of the creeps.
  
Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 10
So, I have to be honest, here.  At first, I actually didn't think the fantasy suite date card was that terrible of an idea.  And I'm not sure that Desiree did either.  But something about it became uncomfortably sexual and just plain uncomfortably uncomfortable pretty darn fast. And then he just kept making it worse. Good thing for Desiree for standing her ground in what I imagine was actually a pretty awkward situation (although I guess the good news is, she had 18 guys on standby, some of whom seemed ready and willing to rip his arms off. Cuddles, the Gorilla - I'm looking at you).

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0It seems pretty clear that Jonathan has never actually had a girlfriend before in his life. It's also not totally clear if he has ever actually kissed a girl.


Zak W. - SP: 345

Attraction (a): 10
 Zak got mostly naked and barely strung a coherent sentence together. It's pretty clear what Desiree wants here.
  
Featured Scene Percentage (P): 7

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0
 Remember that time when a guy showed up wearing a mask and everyone was like, "Okay, that makes sense for his entrance, but does he really have to wear that all the time?"  Anybody else notice how nobody said that about Zak and his lack of shirt?  I don't love Des, but after the repressed Ashley and Mommy Em, it's kind of refreshing to see a Bachelorette who's not afraid to be led a little by her penis.
  
Background (B): 5
 Though we didn't really get much on Zak in his little package (no pun intended - I'm sure his package is perfectly respectable. And no, Zak. I don't need you to prove it), I'm kind of thinking that with Zak, what you see is what you get. 

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 5
 I mean he walks around his front porch naked. Des isn't the only girl in the world with needs.

Week 1, The Draft: Limo 1 Prospect Report

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I would definitely use this metric to guide your draft (or almost anything else).  For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

Drew - SP: 504

Attraction (a): 7
  Drew was the first to receive Desiree's (hopefully not) patented mmm mmm mmm seal of approval. This would have been higher, but he was also the first guy out of the limo so the mildly lewd noise might have been in appreciation of the fact that limos full of hot guys were about to empty into her sparkly lap rather than about Drew's attractiveness in particular.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 9

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0
  Nice and normal.  Does he not understand how this game is played!

Background (B): 8
  I have already forgotten what Drew's particular personal tragedy was, but I know there was one!  How do I know?  Because in my notes, I just wrote down "Saddest looking at pictures ever" by his name.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
 Let's face it. I don't watch this show because I believe in this process or because I want to watch a hapless 24-year old Katie Holmes look alike finally (finally!) find love. I watch it because I'm an incorrigible cynic whose driven by a quest for schadenfreude and earnestness to mock.  But every season there's a few romantic moments and a few sincere people who, I admit it, I just kind of fall for.  And Drew's "When do the butterflies go away?" moment was just kinda sweet. Try not to laugh too hard at me when his girlfriend comes on the show next week and reveals that he also dropped the "I kind of don't want them to line on her during their first date.


Brooks - SP: 500

Attraction (a): 5
  To be henceforth considered the score for guys that we didn't really get anything on.  She's probably not unattracted to him (disattracted? counterattracted?), but she didn't give him the kind of seal of approval that would have us all crying wolf if she was a guy (a wolf whistle perhaps?), so he remains in the average and uninteresting middle

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 20
  Okay, yes. I cheated here.  But Brooks is in A LOT of the "coming up" scenes...and not the angry "coming up" scenes.  The lovey ones.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 5
  Brooks' entrance was awkward, but in a very human, very nervous, very possible that he might be Canadian sort of way. Sure, he forgot to tell Desiree his name and did very little to distinguish himself outside of not having short, light brown hair, but I didn't have to hide behind the nearest household item to get through his moment in the sun.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
  Brooks isn't necessarily my front runner for guy who's desperate and emotional to the point of being creepy, but he definitely makes the top five. He was waaaaay too anxious about being sent home after his very minimal night 1 conversation with Des.


Brad - SP: 7

Attraction (a): 3
  Brad earned himself a "very handsome" from Desiree and given her more visceral response to the other gentlemen of whom she thought of fondly, I'm guessing this is not a great sign.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 1

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 3
  By all traditional metrics, Brad nailed his entrance.  He had a cute little gimmick that didn't lead to the gritting of anyone's teeth. He played off of her whole fountain wish thing but put his own spin on it with the wish bone. But he clearly didn't really think of an exit strategy.  After Desiree won herself the lion's share of the bone, there was this kind of awkward silence while he stood there trying to think of something to say, and not even the right kind of awkwardness with which he might have been rewarded if he had come pre-loaded with some sort of terrible pun. (Something about wishing rather than something about bones.  Desiree isn't that kind of girl!)

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2
  I've decided this is just the average likelihood of anyone who's on The Bachelorette having a girlfriend back home.  The historical statistics might not bear me out on this.


Bryden - SP: 400

Attraction (a): 8
  Between getting a first impression rose and from the highly scientific evidence that it just sorta seemed like Desiree was liking his vibe, I feel like the attraction was definitely there.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 5

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0
  Bryden's entrance actually wasn't awkward at all.  It was normal and nice.  Plus he hit on, what I suspect has been Desiree's mantra for the past couple of months: "Sean made a huge mistake."

Background (B): 10
  Full marks to Bryden for coming up with a potentially tragic background to pique our interest (by which I, of course, mean serving honorably and admirably to defend our nation in the Iraq War), while still saving kernels to disperse to earn himself a weekly "thank you for telling me" rose. And as if that wasn't enough, he tossed in a casual reference to changing the life of a kid. He might be as good at this show as he seems to be at life.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
  I know I just said that I saw two as the baseline average, but come on.  He changed the life of an Iraqi kid!  People who care about adorable foreign children, who care about serving their country can't possibly be getting something on the side, right?

Michael G. - SP: 430

Attraction (a): 6
  Michael also earned himself a first impression rose but had far too limited screen time for us to really judge what was behind it.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 9

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 8
  Michael may not have aspired to Desiree's particular sweet spot of awkwardness, but I really think he hit it.  The looking for the coins in the fountain bit was adorable, but when he couldn't find them he kept looking for way too long (and he clearly should have known that some intern sold those pennies on ebay for ramen noodles months ago) and let his panic show just a little bit more than it should have. That being said, I could totally see them reliving his sodden scramble to retrieve this missing penny the night before she accepts the proposal from some other guy.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2

Week 1: The Draft Class: Prospect Report

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), and because I don't want to kick off this season with yet another diatribe about Desiree, I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

After last season's debacle, I have been scrupulously avoiding spoilers and therefore, have no actual knowledge of any of these men (or, to take the optimist's view, roughly the same degree of knowledge that Des will have when she agrees to marry one of them); however, I feel confident that my many years spent watching the show have given me enough insight to identify the factors that really matter in each prospective husband's premier performance and to develop an advanced metric which will henceforth be known as "Staying Power" (SP) based on:

Attraction (a): The degree to which Desiree demonstrated attraction to a guy. Not to be confused with actual attractiveness (A), which is classically described by the universally objective Pitt-Beckham scale of hotness. This factor, though among the most important, contributes a larger weight to The Bachelor than to its lady-driven counterpart

Background (B): The extent to which we are exposed to a guy and/or his personal tragedy during Episode 1. Emotional exposure.  Physical exposure doesn't count (ahem, Zak W.). Though being featured in a profile at the top of the show doesn't guarantee you'll avoid the limo of shame after night one, it certainly helps. This variable encompasses, not just the extent to which the audience is allowed to peer into the still very, very shallow recesses of each contestant's soul, but also, how sad each contestant makes us feel and their level of success in exploiting an adorable relative.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): This is a controversial measure, especially with a lady like Desiree, who clearly doesn't like her romantic gestures to come with costumes or props, but for each contestant who makes it through the first rose ceremony, the extent to which they made the rest of us cringe on night one can actually be a plus in terms of Staying Power. The embarrassing entrance can be your go to for stagnant conversations and for times you should be discussing things like what religion you plan to raise you kids (Yenter, 2013).

Featured Scene Percentage in "Coming Up" Montage (P): This can be misleading. Often the truly terrible villains dominate a lot of screen time and then go home by week 5, but as the draft is ultimately about who will put up points rather than who will win Des' heart, it would be folly not to include it here.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): This one sort speaks for itself. Also, it has historically had a disconcertingly high correlation with Attraction (a).

There are a few other variables that I considered that ultimately didn't make the list. Last year, Catherine single-handedly disproved the importance of Rememberability (R) on night one (also, on nights 2-10), and while the Time that you Receive your Rose (T) is allegedly important in later episodes, it has limited cache in the kickoff rose ceremony (sadly, Ability to Fit a Normal Sized Shirt around your Somewhat North of Normal Sized Neck (AFNSSAYSNNSN) is still pretty key - sorry Mikey).

Mix these numbers all around (all of which will be based on a not at all arbitrary score out of 10) and you have yourself a metric that - not unlike an NFL quarterback's performance on the combine - is predictive of absolutely nothing. Happy Drafting Everyone!

                      SP = a*P(E+B) - L