Week 1, The Draft: Limo 2 Prospect Reports

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I'll confess to actually watching the bios ABC helpfully posted on the website just because the first episode gave us so little to go on. I will also confess being ashamed about watching the bios - extra content is where I try to draw the line! For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

Brady - SP: 0

Attraction (a): 0
So, the real question is at what level is Britt's attraction to him. Based on next to nothing, my guess is it's not that high. She may make a go of things with him just for lessening her embarrassment, but I don't think he was the guy in the room she really had her eye on. You do have to give the guy credit, though, for offering a veritable buffet of lady hot buttons, including music, athletics, and faith. Although he may have ruined some of his edgy alt-rock cred by quoting Good Will Hunting... 

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 0
Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 3
I actually sort of liked his 7th grade dance line, though it was a bit of a dick move given he had so clearly already decided on Britt. Of course, that certainly works to extend the metaphor as there are all sorts of dick moves when you're in the 7th grade. 

Background (B): 4
His songs "marry pain and joy." I assume he means my pain that I have to listen to them and his that they are on TV. I give the marriage roughly the same chance as the standard Bachelor relationship.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
Which is weird because the cardinals' farm team is usually known for its jersey chasers.

Cory - SP: 9

Attraction (a): 5
According to my notes, there was a comment exchanged with Cory about eyes and smiles and something standing out. It's unclear in what direction this compliment was paid because I'm terrible at shorthand, but at the very least, some generic sparks flew (And if they were Kirkland generic sparks, I think we all know they were likely equally delightful if not superior to their brand name counterparts). 

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 2
Probably because it's just not sustainable to have two Corey S's!

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0

Background (B): 1
Let's just hope he doesn't get sent home before we find out what happened to his E! It's probably something he'll only feel comfortable bringing up on a one-on-one date (a on-on-on dat?)

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 1

Ian - SP: 320

Attraction (a): 8
Though it really seems like the producers basically sprinkled Ian with magical attractiveness dust. They brought Ian out after pretty much demolishing Kaitlyn's self-confidence with a limo's worth of Britt men and allowed him to not-so-subtly whisper that he was there to save the day. There's no such thing as coincidence on this show, but it is hard to know if his lost boy tendencies awakened a producer's tinker bell fantasies of if it's yet another attempt to silence ongoing critiques about race.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 5
It may have been just what she needed on night 1, but something tells me Kaitlyn may soon sour on his eagerness if it persists.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0

Background (B): 8
Of all the Bachelor tragedies, personal injuries are the best because they allow you to demonstrate persistence through adversity without the same degree of lasting psychological damage. That being said, it really is a bummer  that all Ian had to fall back on as a result of his broken dreams was a degree from Princeton. 

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0

J.J. - SP: 148

Attraction (a): 5
While a number of the men had to backpedal after Britt's sudden departure, it seemed that J.J. was the king of the flip-floppers. He went from propositioning Kaitlyn with a bawdy joke to falling in love with and defending the honor of Britt back to the romantic "reset" button and the revelation of his daughter. That being said, he did say he was a former hockey player, so...he's probably good.

For those of you non-Hockey fans, this is Don Cherry.
Really all you need to know about him is that he is the
worst.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 5

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 3
Given Kaitlyn's history, I was with him until he also offered to "puck" Britt. Perhaps if he had suggested a three-way Flying V...

Background (B): 3
Fortunately, I assume his daughter is pretty much immune to all inappropriate hockey jokes after receiving the standard Canadian 6-month Don Cherry inoculation. 

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 2
The standard baby mama bump.

Jared - SP: 700

Attraction (a): 7
Because what's sexier than honesty? (I know it read as rhetorical, but...the answer is actually Shawn B.). If I had been forced to draw a picture of Kaitlyn's "type" before the show started, though, for some reason, it would totally come out looking like Jared. (I am, however, ashamed to admit, I would not have had the incredible brilliance to depict him riding on a triceratops).

"Had I only been asked if I agreed to this...."

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 10
I don't even really want to think about the impending "sex gate" and the slut shaming and whinging that will go with it, but I wouldn't be surprised if either the man who is her somehow blameless partner in crime or the one who is most devastated by it turns out to be Jared.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 9
Jared was actually in the first limo, but I mentally blocked that out so I wouldn't have to relive his stupid "love man" stunt. It lacked originality, commitment, and any sort of self-editing, and I don't even feel a little bad about downgrading him to limo 2 as a result.

Background (B): 1
And can I just say...no man is single because he "knows what he wants. Unless "what he wants" is to have sex with lots of different girls.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0

Week 1, the Draft: Limo 1 Prospect Reports

Because I aim to be nothing but helpful (it's true. Everywhere I go, people follow me and say. "See that girl? Boy is she helpful!"....at least that's what I've always assumed the word "mean" means), I'm going to start this round of the league by handicapping the prospects for this weekend's draft using a complicated statistic that I've developed based equally on my mathematical acumen (I test at roughly a 7th grade level) and my pension for complete BS.

Below, I give you the Staying Power (SP) rating for each of the men based on their performance in episode 1. I'll confess to actually watching the bios ABC helpfully posted on the website just because the first episode gave us so little to go on. I will also confess being ashamed about watching the bios - extra content is where I try to draw the line! For more detail on the hours of careful thought (read: metro ride) that went into Staying Power (SP = a*P(E+B) - L, see my earlier post.

Ben H. - SP: 142

Attraction (a): 7
Things started out rocky for young Benjamin what with his whole involuntary decision to lose the power of speech when first beholding Britt (otherwise known as "the Chris"), but he soon righted the ship. Who knew asking about her tattoos was to Kaitlyn as bearing a strong resemblance to his mother is to a serial killer? (I just felt it was the wisest course to start the year out with a dark, dark SAT analogy. I know you'll all agree I was right).

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 7
You know...maybe? The editors really seemed to be attempting to stymie our predictive powers this year through the use of artful lighting and lots and lots of backs of heads. Also, you'd be hard pressed to prove to me that Ben H., Tanner, J.J., Chris, and maybe two or three more guys didn't grow up as stand-ins for each other playing the same character on some program airing on T.G.I.F. (Just as I'd be hard pressed to convince all of you that I don't make some derivation of this exact same joke every year!)

I just wanted to ensure that mine were not the only nightmares
that this haunts...

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0

Background (B): 3
Well, he sponsored a child, so....what else could we possibly need to know? The only redeeming feature on his excessive focus on Sally Struthers' second career was that it presented a clear opportunity to highlight Britt's obvious discomfort focusing on a topic she had only mentioned in passing in a weak effort to justify her good personhood to the frothing mass of women telling all.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 5
He did say that his beloved sponsor child was nearly 18....


Jonathan - SP: 15

Attraction (a): 2
You sorta have to feel like some of the strong pro-Britt guys got ushered onto the season at the producers' behest. Though it is important to note that no matter how much arm twisting went on, he still rated more highly than the creepy, amateur sex guy.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 2
We're looking at maybe two episodes before Kaitlyn graciously decided she can't possibly keep him from his son. 

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0

Background (B): 5
The aforementioned son is absolutely adorable. That being said, even an adorable son is no excuse for defaming the sacred words "partner in life" which should be reserved for the Bachelorette.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 5
If not back home, then at least in his heart. And her name is Britt.

Clint - SP: 70

Attraction (a): 5
It's possible that I might be a little bit attracted to Clint after seeing his Chris Harrison masterwork an hearing him say it was his "duty to spread the word" after witnessing Kaitlyn's kiss with Chris. I have no clue how Kaitlyn feels, so I'm somewhat randomly projecting.

For example, I could never find true
love with a man whose favorite
dinosaur was this.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 7
Although this should be taken with a grain of salt. Either a lot of the footage was from the same night or Clint really likes suspenders. 

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 0

Background (B): 2
not a lot, but it's important to find out a man's favorite dinosaur right off the bat. How else do you know if you're compatible. 

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
Because if he did, surely he'd have better things to do than draw pictures of Chris Harrison. And then maybe he'd also find some time to tell me exactly what those better things are...because I'm coming up empty on my list!

Ryan B. - SP: 6

Attraction (a): 2
You know how, when you were growing up and there were two kids in your class with the same name (let's call them John for no particular reason, especially not ones related to my own personal experience) they were each known by certain characteristics? Like John R. was known for really liking legos and John G. was best recalled by, just, you know, off the top of my head, the uncanny resemblance he bore to a sperm? You know, typical stuff like that. Stuff that's not at all connected to any particular person from my childhood. Well, anyway, here it feels like Ryan M. took all of the things - the drunkenness, the loudness, the sexual harassment - and there just wasn't anything left for Ryan B.

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 3
Apparently when I watched the episode I had some knowledge of Ryan's face, knowledge that has since waned. While probably not a major source of sadness in Ryan's life, I would totally remember him better if he looked like a giant sperm.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 1
So, the only thing I wrote down about Ryan was that he called Britt a Disney princess. I can't WAIT to see his Kardashley-style meltdown when someone else gets chosen to accompany Kaitlyn on the princess-themed date/advertisement for Disney's latest summer flick.

Background (B): 0

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0
Pretty sure Ryan M. has dibs on this unattractive attribute as well.

Kupah - SP: 9

If you're going to utterly demean women, it's
best to look like this...you know, just for the
safety of your chin pube region.

Attraction (a): 3
Whatever level Kaitlyn is at now, I'm sure it will see a sharp decline when she hears Kupah's disgusting trophy wife comment. If Britt is trophy wife material, and Kaitlyn is (shudder) regular wife material, then he is material for having me forcibly and painfully remove his gross chin pubes with a pair of rusty tweezers. 

Featured Scene Percentage (P): 1
Mercifully.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): 3
The default level of embarrassment necessitate by his chin pubes. Did I mention I'm not a fan of Kupah?

Background (B): 0
Though it perhaps included some plastic surgery as I am still just so baffled that any man under the age of 50 would admit the desire for a "trophy wife."

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): 0

Week 1: Draft Class Prospect Reports

Women can make healthy choices like
carrots...

So...I have to admit, I'm a little bit leery about putting together prospect reports this year. It's not that I have any doubt that you all pretty much treat them as gospel, that they become, like the Torah, your ethical and practical guide (which reminds me, you should all be eating lots of prosciutto. It is delicious). But if I learned anything from this week's episodes (and I always do. The Bachelorette is basically a modern-day Sesame Street or perhaps, since Sesame Street is the modern-day Sesame Street, a three-part mini-docu-series about race in America), it's that women really shouldn't be making choices. So...maybe we can just all agree to ignore these (which is clearly so hard!) except for you, Brandon?

Or they can make terrible choices like
dressing up like slutty cookie monster...

I mean, look, I think it's been well-established that I have the gender politics of a playground game of kickball, and yet still, this week's episodes really managed to rub me the wrong way. I actually do believe that ABC went into this because they couldn't pick between Kaitlyn and Britt (read: they weren't sure that men would find Kaitlyn attractive enough and they figured if they picked Britt, their female audience would revolt), but that's not exactly how it played out on screen. Both women spent portions of the night feeling victimized and embarrassed and acutely aware of how catty the process made them seem. (I too am acutely aware of my own cattiness as my favorite part of the episode was, by far, when Britt alluded to Kaitlyn's vulgarity and then went on to say "I feel like I need to prove myself as wife material so they'll put a rose in my box." Hee hee hee). And if all of that wasn't enough, it just got worse as the night progressed and Chris Harrison stepped in to send Ryan M. home. I'm not exactly stepping up and taking the pro-Ryan M., ass-grabbing stance, but in any other year that would have been the woman's choice in consultation with Chris. And this year it really just served to highlight that we've apparently decided it's too dull or perhaps too unrealistic to have to watch a woman in the driver's seat (especially a woman who's not putting on her makeup in the rearview mirror as she drives).

But I think we can all agree that their choices are
better when they are actually choices made by
Chris Harrison.

I desperately hope this pathetic night one set-up doesn't stifle all that is great about Kaitlyn. She is dynamic and funny and strong, and I'd hate to see her go the way of insecurity (more commonly known as Ashley Hebert Lane) and constant doubt. I hope that Kaitlyn doesn't spend the next eight episodes plagued with thoughts of Britt, and I hope the men aren't signing up for Bachelor in Paradise in hopes of meeting their one-time second choice. But mostly, I hope that it doesn't affect our usual metrics. Because there's so much science in these things!

As per usual, I'll be rating each of the men on:

Attraction (a): The degree to which Kaitlyn demonstrated attraction to a guy. Not to be confused with actual attractiveness (A), which is classically described by the universally objective Pitt-Beckham scale of hotness. This factor, though among the most important, contributes a larger weight to The Bachelor than to its lady-driven counterpart. We'll give Kaitlyn the benefit of the doubt that this won't be confounded by a-sub-b, also known as, the extent to which each bachelor appeared to be attracted to Britt.

Background (B): The extent to which we are exposed to a guy and/or his personal tragedy during Episode 1. This variable encompasses, not just the extent to which the audience is allowed to peer into the still very, very shallow recesses of each contestant's soul, but also, how sad each contestant makes us feel and their level of success in exploiting an adorable relative.

Awkwardness of Entrance (E): This is a controversial measure, but for each contestant who makes it through the first rose ceremony, the extent to which they made the rest of us cringe on night one can actually be a plus in terms of Staying Power. The embarrassing entrance can be your go to for stagnant conversations and for times you should be discussing things like what religion you plan to raise you kids (Yenter, 2013).

Featured Scene Percentage in "Coming Up" Montage (P): This can be misleading. Often the truly terrible villains dominate a lot of screen time and then go home by week 5, but as the draft is ultimately about who will put up points rather than who will win Kaitlyn's heart, it would be folly not to include it here.

Likelihood of Having a Girlfriend Back Home (L): This one sort speaks for itself. Also, it has historically had a disconcertingly high correlation with Attraction (a).

Mix these numbers all around (all of which will be based on a not at all arbitrary score out of 10) and you have yourself a metric that - not unlike an NFL quarterback's performance on the combine - is predictive of absolutely nothing. Happy Drafting Everyone!

                      SP = a*P(E+B) - L